Critical thinking and better decisions

Test claims, read numbers without being misled, and make work and money decisions you can explain and review later.

You make dozens of decisions a week on claims you have not checked: a statistic in a report, a colleague's confident read of the numbers, a chart in a WhatsApp forward. Most of the time it does not matter. Sometimes it costs you a bad hire, a wasted project or a poor money decision. This course teaches a short set of habits for testing claims, reading numbers and charts, telling correlation from causation, catching your own biases, and structuring decisions so they are easier to review later. You leave with a decision journal you keep using and a clear way to judge decisions by more than their outcome.

What you'll be able to do

• Break an argument into claim, evidence and warrant, and write the question that tests its weakest link
• Name the common fallacies in a real discussion and respond without attacking the person
• Check a chart or statistic for axis tricks, missing base rates and averages that mislead
• Explain whether a study or report shows causation, and name the confounder that could explain it instead
• Spot anchoring, confirmation bias and the planning fallacy in your own work decisions
• Sort decisions into reversible and irreversible and run a pre-mortem on an important one
• Estimate probabilities and calculate expected value for a real choice
• Keep a decision journal and review past decisions by process, not just outcome

Syllabus

Module 1: Pull an argument apart before you accept it

Separate any argument into what is claimed, what it rests on and the link between them, and judge the quality of the evidence before the confidence of the speaker.

• 1.1 Claim, evidence and the link nobody says out loud
• 1.2 Not all evidence weighs the same
• 1.3 Qualifiers and rebuttals make a claim stronger
• 1.4 Map a real argument

Module 2: Spot the moves that win arguments unfairly

Recognise the common fallacies that make weak arguments sound strong, and respond to them in a meeting without sounding like a pedant.

• 2.1 Attacking the person, the straw man and the false choice
• 2.2 Authority, popularity and the slippery slope
• 2.3 Sunk costs and other traps in your own head
• 2.4 Respond without winning on technicalities

Module 3: Read numbers and charts without being fooled

Check statistics and charts for the common tricks: axes that exaggerate, averages that mislead, missing base rates and percentages without the numbers behind them.

• 3.1 Charts that tell a story the data does not
• 3.2 Averages that hide the story
• 3.3 Percentages, risk and the base rate
• 3.4 Survivorship bias and missing data
• 3.5 Audit a report's numbers

Module 4: Tell correlation from causation

Judge whether one thing really causes another, name the confounders and reverse causes that could explain a pattern, and know which kinds of evidence settle the question.

• 4.1 Three other reasons two things move together
• 4.2 Why experiments beat observation
• 4.3 Regression to the mean at work
• 4.4 Judge a causal claim

Module 5: Catch your own biases before they decide

Recognise the biases that most often distort work and everyday decisions, and use simple checks that reduce their effect instead of hoping to notice them in the moment.

• 5.1 Fast and slow thinking
• 5.2 Anchors and confirmation
• 5.3 Vivid stories and the planning fallacy
• 5.4 Build a bias checklist for your decisions

Module 6: Match the decision process to the stakes

Sort decisions by how reversible and important they are, decide small ones fast, and slow down on the big ones with structure such as a pre-mortem.

• 6.1 One-way doors and two-way doors
• 6.2 Imagine it failed: the pre-mortem
• 6.3 Widen your options before you choose
• 6.4 Run a decision review on a real choice

Module 7: Think in probabilities and expected value

Replace yes-or-no predictions with probabilities, calculate expected value for real choices, and know when the average is not the whole story.

• 7.1 Decisions are bets
• 7.2 Expected value in practice
• 7.3 When the average is not enough
• 7.4 Update your beliefs with new evidence
• 7.5 Price a real decision

Module 8: Review decisions by process, not just outcome

Keep a decision journal, review past decisions fairly by separating luck from judgement, and turn reviews into better habits.

• 8.1 Good decisions can have bad outcomes
• 8.2 What goes in a decision journal
• 8.3 Review your decisions every quarter
• 8.4 Start your decision journal and review one decision

Frequently asked questions

How long does the course take?

About ten hours across eight modules, including the exercises. Most people take four to six weeks so they can try the tools on real decisions as they come up.

Do I need to be good at maths?

No. You need percentages and basic arithmetic. Expected value is taught with simple multiplication and a spreadsheet, and there are no formulas beyond that.

How is this different from Behavioural Finance?

Behavioural Finance applies biases to investing and money behaviour. This course covers thinking and deciding in general, with work and everyday examples, and only touches on money decisions.

Will this tell me what to decide?

No. It gives you ways to test claims and structure decisions. Where examples involve money, they are for education and do not replace financial advice.

Explore more

• All Academy courses