You will be able to trace a tariff from the targeted product to suppliers, competitors and currencies.
Marcus works in logistics in Singapore and holds a handful of shares. During the April 2025 tariff news their account moved by thousands of dollars in a week (an invented figure), and they found they could not tell which holdings were truly exposed to tariffs and which had simply fallen with everything else.
On 2 April 2025 the US announced sweeping new tariffs on imports from most of its trading partners. Over the following days shares dropped sharply around the world, Singapore included. On 9 April the US put the higher rates on hold for most countries for 90 days, and prices jumped. When a whole market moves together, the price chart cannot show which companies the tariff will cost money. You find that by tracing its effects one link at a time.
A tariff is a tax on imported goods, and the importer pays it when the goods cross the border. The direct consequences, called first-order effects, land on two parties: the importer and the exporter of the targeted goods.
The importer decides where the extra cost goes. It can raise prices for its customers, absorb the cost in its own margin, or press the foreign supplier to charge less. Most use some mix of the three.
The exporter either ships fewer goods or cuts its price to remain competitive. A large enough tariff shuts some exporters out of the market altogether. When the US raised tariffs on a wide range of Chinese goods from 2018, the first damage appeared at Chinese exporters of those goods and at the US importers that depended on them. These effects are the most visible, and markets usually price them within hours.
Second-order effects are the knock-on effects. They show up later and tend to last longer, and they are where a company's long-term earnings shift. On the day of an announcement, markets mostly react to first-order effects. If you have traced the chain further, you can see things the headlines leave out.
Rerouting comes first. After the 2018 tariffs, many companies shifted final assembly of goods bound for the US from China to places like Vietnam and Mexico. Firms that already had factories there won new orders, and firms that had to pay for the move earned lower margins for a period.
Retaliation comes second. China answered the 2018 tariffs with tariffs of its own, including on US soybeans, and American soybean exports to China dropped steeply. A tariff aimed at one product can end up costing an unrelated industry in the country that imposed it.
Currency comes third. When a country's exports face tariffs, its currency may weaken, which cancels out part of the tariff for its exporters. The yuan fell over 2018 and 2019 and went past seven to the US dollar in August 2019, while the dispute was escalating.
Demand comes fourth. Higher prices and uncertainty lead businesses to put off investment and households to cut spending. Trade volumes then slow for everyone, including countries nobody targeted.
News reports tell you which countries and products are involved. To learn what a tariff means for a single company, go to its filings. In an annual report or a US 10-K, the risk factors section discusses tariffs when management judges the exposure to matter. Segment notes break revenue down by region and sometimes show where the cost of goods comes from. For specific numbers, read the results announcements and earnings calls from the quarters after a tariff change. Those are where companies usually say what tariffs cost them, what share they passed on to customers and what production they are relocating.
Marcus did this for two holdings. Their US chip designer's filings described tariffs on imported components and on finished products that cross several borders, with assembly in Asia and customers all over the world, so that company has direct exposure. Their SGX-listed supplier's annual report showed most revenue billed to customers outside the US, which limits the first-order hit. Those customers, though, sell equipment into US and Chinese fabs, so the supplier carries second-order exposure through their orders.
Singapore's total trade in goods and services is a multiple of its GDP. The port, the airport, logistics companies, banks that finance trade and manufacturers exporting from here all rely on global trade volumes. When two other countries fight over tariffs, Singapore's economy and companies listed here can suffer even though Singapore is never named. Slower trade means fewer containers through the port, less trade finance for banks and weaker demand for exporters across the region, and all of it feeds into the STI. Lesson 4.6, "Singapore's exposure as a trade and financial hub", follows this through. Because Marcus works in logistics, they notice a slowdown in their own company's volumes before it appears in any statistics.
When you check your own holdings, start by pinning down the tariff: which country imposes it, on which goods and from where. Next, find the importer paying and how it splits the cost between customers, margin and supplier, and the exporter losing sales or price. Then work through rerouting, retaliation, currency and demand. Read the filings in the order above, and sort each holding into direct, first-order exposure or indirect, second-order exposure through customers or trade volumes. For Singapore-linked holdings, also check port containers, trade finance at banks and regional export demand.
Pick a recent tariff announcement and trace it the same way: the first-order effect, then at least two second-order ones, for companies you could own.
Take one recent tariff announcement and write down its first-order effect and two second-order effects on companies you could own.
Junxiong-WFG Organisation is an authorised representative of AIA Financial Advisers Private Limited (Reg. No. 201715016G).