If you expect your bills to keep climbing next year, so do most households here. In Singapore Management University's (SMU) latest survey of Singapore inflation expectations, 87.1% said events at home and abroad would push inflation up over the next year. On average, they expect prices to rise 3.4%, the same as in June. Their guess for transport jumped the most, to 5%. Here's what the survey found, how it compares with what MAS expects, and what it means for your budget.
SMU's Sim Kee Boon Institute runs this survey every quarter. The latest round asked 510 people online between 11 and 21 September 2026.
Of those 510, 87.1% expect what's happening in Singapore and around the world to push inflation up over the next year. That's slightly down from 87.7% in June. Only 3.9% expect inflation to come down, against 4.3% in June.
On average, they expect prices to be 3.4% higher a year from now, no change from June. Their guess for core inflation went up, to 3.6% from 3.4%. Core inflation leaves out accommodation and private transport costs, which SMU calls volatile because they jump around a lot.
Here's why the people expecting higher inflation said so:
The survey also asks what people expect for each kind of spending. Transport jumped the most, from 3.8% to 5%. Healthcare held at 4%, and food and education both held at 3%.
SMU's release describes transport as a cost that moves directly with oil prices. MAS's statement on 14 October said inflation in transport services that burn a lot of fuel has stayed high. It also said energy prices have risen again since September.
Prof Zhang Hong leads the survey at SMU. "Different spending patterns can therefore produce different expected pressures on household budgets," he said. If more of your money goes on getting around, the transport figure is closer to your own than the average for all spending.
| Spending | June 2026 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Transport | 3.8% | 5.0% |
| Healthcare | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Housing and utilities | 3.0% | 3.1% |
| Food | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Education | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Information and communication | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Clothing and footwear | 2.0% | 2.7% |
The table below puts the survey next to MAS's forecasts and the latest actual figures. The periods differ: households were asked about the next 12 months, and MAS forecasts each calendar year.
In August, prices were 2.3% higher than a year before, and MAS's core measure was 2.2%, SMU's release notes. In MAS's survey of professional forecasters, released in September, the typical forecast for 2026 inflation was 2.1%.
On 14 October, MAS kept the Singapore dollar's policy band rising at the same pace. It expects core inflation to stay slightly raised for the next few quarters and to ease more clearly from mid-2027. Our guide to MAS's October 2026 decision explains how that works on your bills.
| Who or what | Period | Headline inflation | Core inflation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Households (SMU survey, September) | Next 12 months | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| Professional forecasters (MAS survey, September) | 2026 | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| MAS forecast (14 October) | 2026 | Around 2.0% | 1.5% to 2.0% |
| MAS forecast (14 October) | 2027 | 1.5% to 2.5% | 1.5% to 2.5% |
| Actual prices | August 2026, year on year | 2.3% | 2.2% |
Prof Zhang said the bigger rise in longer-term core expectations was worth watching. His reason: what people think prices will do can shape how they save and spend.
Those longer-term numbers did climb. Looking five years ahead, households' guess for headline inflation rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in June. Their guess for core inflation rose by more, to 4.2% from 3.8%.
Fewer do than in June. In September, 38.6% of those asked expected their household finances to get worse over the next year, down from 46% in June.
The typical answer was that household finances will stay about the same, even as expenses rise slightly. People expect business conditions to get a little worse over the next year, and to stay stable over five years.
They also expect conditions for buying big items, such as household appliances and furniture, to get slightly worse in the next 12 months. Our post on the IMF's cost of living warning looks at the same squeeze on your monthly budget.
For now, MAS expects so. It said energy prices have climbed again since September and should stay high in the near term. It also expects food prices around the world to pick up, as inputs cost more and bad weather hits food production.
MAS forecasts core inflation of 1.5% to 2.0% for 2026 and headline inflation of around 2.0%. For 2027, it forecasts 1.5% to 2.5% for both.
MAS also said the risks lean towards higher inflation. One is a sharp jump in global energy or food prices that doesn't let up. That could push Singapore's import costs up by more than MAS forecast.
To check whether your pay is keeping up with prices, use the salary vs inflation calculator. Our guide to Singapore's inflation rate in 2026 explains headline and core inflation in more detail.
It's a survey run every quarter at SMU's Sim Kee Boon Institute, which asks people in Singapore online how much they expect prices to rise. The September 2026 round asked 510 people between 11 and 21 September.
No. 3.4% is the average rise in prices that households in SMU's survey expect over the next year. In its 14 October 2026 statement, MAS forecast headline inflation of around 2.0% for 2026 and 1.5% to 2.5% for 2027.
Core inflation leaves out accommodation and private transport costs, which SMU calls volatile because they jump around a lot. In SMU's September survey, households expect core inflation of 3.6% over the next year, up from 3.4% in June.
SMU's release describes transport as a cost that moves directly with oil prices. MAS said on 14 October that inflation in fuel-heavy transport services has stayed high, and that energy prices have risen again since September.
This is general financial information for Singapore, not personal financial advice. Figures change, so verify current rates against the official sources above before acting. See our full disclaimer.
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