World Bank commodity prices outlook: what does a 23% jump mean for your bills?
If you pay SP Group's regulated electricity tariff, your rate per kWh dropped on 1 October. The tariff fell 10.4% for October to December, while fixed-price plans kept their contract rates. Then the World Bank commodity prices outlook landed this week, with global commodity prices up 23% in 2026. So is that cheaper tariff about to flip? Not this quarter, since the October to December rate is already set. Here's what the forecast covers, how it reaches Singapore, and what you can check on your own bills.
What did the World Bank actually forecast?
Oil, gas, food and metals all got sharply pricier this year. The World Bank's new Commodity Markets Outlook has commodity prices up 23% in 2026, then 7% lower in 2027.
Energy prices are set to rise 32%, which takes them to their highest level since 2022. That ends three straight years of falling energy prices. Brent crude oil is forecast to average US$91 a barrel this year, up from US$69 in 2025, before easing to US$79 in 2027.
Food commodity prices are set to climb about 10% this year and about 7% more in 2027, or about 18% across the two years. Metals are projected to rise 25% to a record, with aluminium, copper and tin all at new highs. Precious metals such as gold are set to jump 40%.
World Bank forecast: how much each commodity group rises in 2026
| Commodity group | Rise in 2026 |
|---|---|
| All commodities | 23% |
| Energy | 32% |
| Food | 10% |
| Fertiliser | 14% |
| Metals | 25% |
| Precious metals | 40% |
| Commodity group | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| All commodities | Up 23% | Down 7% |
| Energy | Up 32% | Eases |
| Brent oil, average a barrel | US$91 | US$79 |
| Food | Up about 10% | Up about 7% |
| Fertiliser | Up 14% | Back to 2025 levels |
| Metals | Up 25% | Down 3% |
| Precious metals | Up 40% | Eases a little |
Why is everything jumping at the same time?
You might wonder why a war so far away reaches your bills. Several big shocks landed in 2026, all at once. The war in the Middle East has drained oil stocks and disrupted cargo shipping. Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2% this year, the biggest drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 recession.
Isn't the world using less oil this year too? Yes, oil use is expected to fall 2.5% this year, the third-biggest drop on record after 2020 and 1980. Supply is projected to fall faster, by 5.2%. So the world keeps drawing down its oil stocks, which leaves less of a cushion if something else breaks.
Food has its own set of problems this year. Fighting between Russia and Ukraine keeps disrupting grain shipments in the Black Sea. Forecasts point to the worst El Nino since 1950, and pricier fuel and fertiliser push up farm costs.
Metals and gold rose for different reasons. Building for renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres keeps metal demand strong. War and policy uncertainty keep demand high for safe-haven assets such as gold.
The catch: why did the regulated electricity tariff just fall?
The regulated electricity tariff follows natural gas prices, about a quarter behind.
Imported natural gas makes about 95% of Singapore's electricity. The regulated tariff is reviewed every quarter, based mostly on gas prices in the first two and a half months of the quarter before. So a change in fuel prices only reaches the tariff in the next quarter.
The 2026 bills show the lag. Global energy prices spiked from April to mid-June. The July to September tariff then came in 17% higher than the quarter before. Electricity and gas prices were still 8.7% higher in September than a year earlier. (Your aircon wasn't the only reason that bill went up.)
Energy costs eased after that spike, so SP Group's regulated tariff fell 10.4% from 1 October. It's now 28.59 cents per kWh before GST, down from 31.91 cents. For an average 4-room HDB flat, that's S$12.99 less a month before GST.
That cut only reaches you if you pay the regulated tariff. By 1 September, 61.6% of households paid it and 38.4% were on fixed-price plans. A fixed-price plan keeps the same rate for the whole contract, so those households saw no change.
So what about January? Global fuel prices have climbed since September as tensions in the Middle East escalated. If they stay high, the January to March tariff could go up, so keep an eye out for it when it's announced.
Will your groceries and hawker meals cost more?
World food commodity prices are set to climb about 10% this year, then about 7% in 2027. Fertiliser prices rise 14% in 2026, before going back to 2025 levels in 2027.
Does a 10% jump in world food prices mean a 10% jump at your hawker centre? Not so far: food prices here were 2.4% higher in September than a year earlier, up a touch from 2.3% in August.
Your plate isn't off the hook, though. In MAS's outlook, higher input costs and bad weather may push up global and regional food prices.
Real talk: could it get worse than the forecast?
Yes, and the World Bank's report shows you how. Its main forecast assumes the conflicts that hit supply don't get much worse.
In its bad case, four things happen together. The Middle East conflict escalates, damage to Russia's oil infrastructure goes on, El Nino hits very hard and more Black Sea grain shipments are attacked. Here's what that does to prices:
MAS's forecast for Singapore carries the same risk. If world energy or food prices surge sharply and stay high, our import costs could rise more than MAS has pencilled in.
- Brent oil averages US$105 a barrel in 2027, against US$79 in the main forecast.
- Food commodity prices end up 12% higher than the main forecast, above their 2022 level.
- That could set off a food crisis like the one in the early 2010s, which pushed more than 40 million extra people into extreme poverty.
What does MAS expect for prices here?
MAS's forecast has core inflation averaging 1.5% to 2% this year and 1.5% to 2.5% in 2027. Core inflation leaves out accommodation and private transport. It eased to 2% in September, and you'll find the details in our breakdown of September's inflation figures.
Does MAS's forecast see relief coming? From mid-2027, when core inflation is set to slow more clearly as imported inflation eases.
On 14 October, MAS left the Singapore dollar's policy band as it was, which lets the currency keep strengthening against imported price rises. Our post on why MAS held its policy in October walks you through it. Our post on the IMF's cost of living warning covers what happens when food and energy prices jump.
What can you check on your own bills this week?
Start with the bill that moves fastest. Check whether your electricity bill charges the regulated tariff or a fixed rate from a retailer contract. The regulated tariff is 28.59 cents per kWh before GST this quarter, or about 31.16 cents with GST.
A fixed-price plan keeps your rate for the length of the contract, whatever gas prices do. On the regulated tariff, your rate is reviewed every quarter. Our guide to the SP tariff and retailer plans sets out how the two work.
Then put your pay next to prices. Use our salary vs inflation calculator to see whether your last raise kept up.
This week, open your latest electricity bill and find the rate per kWh printed on it.
Frequently asked questions
Why are commodity prices rising so much in 2026?
The war in the Middle East has cut oil supply and disrupted shipping. Grain shipments in the Black Sea keep getting disrupted, and demand for metals and gold is high. Together they put the World Bank's forecast at a 23% rise this year.
Will commodity prices come down in 2027?
The World Bank's forecast has commodity prices as a whole 7% lower in 2027. Brent oil averages US$79 a barrel that year, which is down from US$91 in 2026. Food is the exception, since its prices are set to rise about 7% more.
Does the World Bank forecast change Singapore's electricity tariff?
The forecast doesn't set the tariff, but gas prices feed into it. The regulated tariff is reviewed every quarter, based mostly on natural gas prices in the first two and a half months of the quarter before. For October to December 2026, it's 28.59 cents per kWh before GST, which is 10.4% lower than the quarter before.
What is MAS's inflation forecast for Singapore?
MAS's forecast has core inflation averaging 1.5% to 2% in 2026 and 1.5% to 2.5% in 2027, with headline inflation at about 2% in 2026. Core inflation was 2% in September 2026.
Sources
- CNA - World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks (28 October 2026)
- World Bank - Commodity Prices Set to Increase by 23% in 2026 as Global Shocks Mount (28 October 2026)
- EconoTimes - Singapore core inflation eases to 2% as import risks persist (23 October 2026)
- The Star / The Straits Times - Electricity tariff for Singapore households to fall by 10.4% in fourth quarter of 2026 (30 September 2026)
- MustShareNews - Electricity tariff to fall 10.4% from October, gas tariffs to decrease by 8.6% (30 September 2026)
- MAS and METI - Consumer Price Developments in September 2026 (23 October 2026)
Keep exploring
- Singapore core inflation eases to 2% in September: what does it mean for you?
- MAS holds monetary policy in October 2026: why your bills are still going up
- IMF cost of living warning: what does it mean for your monthly budget?
- SP Electricity Rate 2026: The Regulated Tariff and When to Switch
- Singapore inflation rate calculator
- Lifestyle inflation calculator
This is general financial information for Singapore, not personal financial advice. Figures change, so verify current rates against the official sources above before acting. See our full disclaimer.
Junxiong-WFG Organisation is an authorised representative of AIA Financial Advisers Private Limited (Reg. No. 201715016G).