You will be able to write a journal entry that lets you review a decision fairly later.
Think back to a decision you made a year ago, something real like a job move, a big purchase or a hire. Try to recall exactly what you expected to happen, how sure you were and what other options you considered, and you will probably find that you cannot. What most people remember instead is a version of their reasoning that fits what actually happened. If it went well, they remember being confident. If it went badly, they remember having doubts all along.
That is why lesson 8.1, Good decisions can have bad outcomes, is hard to apply from memory alone. Judging a decision by what you knew at the time needs a record of what you knew at the time, and a decision journal is simply a place to keep that record.
Memory does not store your reasons like a file. It rebuilds them each time you recall them, and the outcome you now know leaks into the rebuild. Psychologists call one version of this hindsight bias: after you learn how something turned out, you tend to believe you saw it coming, and you forget how uncertain it felt beforehand.
Hindsight bias makes fair review almost impossible. A decision that turned out badly looks obviously foolish, because the warning signs now seem loud. A decision that turned out well looks like skill, because the doubts have faded. Both conclusions feel like honest memory.
The only defence is to write things down before the outcome is known. An entry written on the day you decide cannot be revised by what happens next. When you read it later, you meet your past self as they actually were: what they knew, what they expected and how sure they were.
A useful entry is short, five to ten minutes of writing, and it covers the same few things every time. Keep it in a spreadsheet, a notes app or a notebook, with one entry per decision. Use these headings:
Date and decision: the date, and the decision in one sentence Options: what you considered, including the ones you rejected Choice and reasons: what you chose and the two or three reasons that tipped it Expectations: what you expect to happen, with a probability and a time frame State of mind: how you feel, how tired, rushed or stressed you are, and anything else going on Review date: when you will come back and check
The options field matters because it records what you rejected. Later, you will want to ask whether a rejected option would have been better, and you cannot do that if you have forgotten it existed. Lesson 6.3, Widen your options before you choose, will have given you more of them to record.
The expectations field is where the work of Module 7 pays off. "I expect this to go well" cannot be checked. "70 percent chance the new hire is performing at full level within six months" can. Write at least one prediction with a probability for every entry, as in lesson 7.1, Decisions are bets.
The state of mind field can feel odd to write. It is there because mood, tiredness and stress affect judgement, and you will not remember them later. A decision made at 11pm after a long week, or straight after an argument, or under pressure from a deadline, is made in different conditions from one made on a calm Tuesday morning.
Over time, these notes show patterns. You might find that decisions made when you felt rushed went wrong more often, or that your predictions were more optimistic when you were excited. Without the note, those patterns are invisible.
Be honest and brief. "Tired, end of quarter, boss pushing for a quick answer" is enough.
Hafiz, from Module 6, writes this entry on the day he chooses a manager for the new Tampines outlet, and the details are made up for this example.
Date and decision: 14 March. Hire Joanne as outlet manager for Tampines. Options: Joanne, an external candidate with more experience; Ben, an internal barista ready for a step up; delay opening by a month and keep searching. Choice and reasons: Joanne, because she has opened a new outlet before, and her references were specific about how she handled a slow first three months. Ben is promising, but opening is the wrong time to learn. Expectations: 70 percent she is running the outlet without daily input from me within three months. 40 percent she is still with us in two years, since her last two roles lasted about eighteen months each. State of mind: under time pressure, the lease starts in five weeks. Slight worry I am choosing safety over developing Ben. Review date: 14 June and 14 March in two years.
That took Hafiz about eight minutes. In three months he will be able to see exactly what he expected, how sure he was, and that he had a nagging doubt about Ben, whatever happens.
Lesson 8.3, Review your decisions every quarter, covers what to do with entries once outcomes are known. For now, the habit to build is writing one when you decide. The activity below asks you to write your first entry for a decision you are making this week.
Write a journal entry for one decision you are making this week using the course template.
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