Will the price of gold go up? What moves it, and what the forecasts say

"Will the price of gold go up?" Nobody can promise that, and gold has already fallen 27.6% from its January 2026 high. The World Bank's October 2026 outlook expects it to average US$4,250 an ounce in 2027, down from US$4,600 in 2026. If your mum has been asking whether now's the time to buy, here's where the price sits in Singapore dollars, what moves it, what the forecasts say, and how long past falls lasted.

Where is the gold price now?

On 30 October 2026, gold was US$3,913.25 per troy ounce at the afternoon LBMA Gold Price, a benchmark price for gold. That was its lowest level of the year so far.

A troy ounce is 31.1035 grams. At that day's exchange rate of S$1.2779 to the US dollar, gold was about S$5,000.74 an ounce, or S$160.78 a gram.

Gold is priced in US dollars, so its price in Singapore dollars moves with the exchange rate as well as with gold itself. A stronger Singapore dollar makes the same ounce cheaper here.

Gold started 2026 at US$4,367.80, the price on 30 December 2025. So by 30 October, it was down 10.4% for the year.

What is your gold worth in Singapore dollars?

Multiply the grams you hold by the price per gram. On 30 October 2026, pure gold was S$160.78 a gram. Say you hold 20 grams of investment-grade gold:

A dealer buying it back from you will pay less than that, since dealers buy below the price they sell at. Ask for the buying price before you count on a figure.

20 grams at S$160.78 a gram is S$3,215.60.
Every S$10 change in the price per gram moves that by S$200.
One troy ounce, 31.1035 grams, was about S$5,000.74.

How did gold get to a record and back?

With one of its biggest runs ever. In 2025, gold rose 67% and set 53 new record highs. Its average for the year, US$3,431 an ounce, was the highest on record and 44% above 2024's US$2,386.

The run carried into 2026. Gold averaged a record US$4,872.9 in the first three months, and it hit its all-time high of US$5,405 on 29 January.

Then it slid. The average dropped to US$4,506.29 from April to June, about 8% lower than in the first quarter, and the price kept falling into October.

Gold's average price by period, and its price on 30 October 2026

Gold's average price by period, and its price on 30 October 2026
Period	US$ per troy ounce
2024 average	US$2,386
2025 average	US$3,431
Jan to Mar 2026	US$4,873
Apr to Jun 2026	US$4,506
30 Oct 2026	US$3,913

Source: World Gold Council, LBMA Gold Price PM data

Quick maths: what does a 27.6% fall take to undo?

More than 27.6%. Say you'd bought one ounce at the January peak. Here's the sum:

Bea smiles nervously as a sweat drop slides down — Me, doing the maths on a bangle bought in January

So a fall always needs a bigger rise to undo it. The bigger the drop, the bigger the climb back.

You paid US$5,405 for the ounce on 29 January 2026.
On 30 October it was worth US$3,913.25, so you'd be down US$1,491.75.
That's 27.6% of what you paid.
To get back to US$5,405, gold has to rise about 38.1% from US$3,913.25.

What pushes the gold price up?

Mostly things that make holding gold look cheap or safe. Gold pays no interest, so it competes with savings, bonds and anything else that pays you to wait.

These are the forces to watch:

Lower interest rates. Holding gold costs you less in lost interest when savings and bonds pay less after inflation.
A weaker US dollar. Gold is priced in US dollars, so it gets cheaper for buyers paying in other currencies.
Wars and policy shocks in the news, which send people to gold for safety. The World Bank's forecast of a 40% rise in precious metals prices in 2026 rests on that demand staying high.
Central banks buying hundreds of tonnes a year, more on that below.
Money flowing into gold ETFs, funds that hold gold and trade like shares. They added 801 tonnes in 2025, their second-biggest year on record.

So, what's been pulling gold down this year?

A few of the same forces, turned around, though no one cause explains it all. The slide began right after the January peak, months before US rates went up again. The US Federal Reserve raised its rate by 0.25 percentage points on 17 September 2026, after three cuts in late 2025.

On 28 October 2026, the Fed held its rate at 3.75% to 4.00%. Two of its 12 voters wanted another rise.

Gold funds turned sellers too. Gold ETFs saw 45 tonnes flow out from April to June 2026. The World Gold Council ties that to weaker gold prices and, especially in North America, to higher inflation and rate expectations and a stronger US dollar.

Its outlook from July 2026 expects those Western fund flows to stay sensitive to the same three things: interest rates after inflation, where the Fed is heading, and the dollar.

Are central banks still buying gold?

Yes, but less than before. Central banks bought a net 1,092 tonnes of gold in 2024 and 863 tonnes in 2025.

Buying in 2026 was slow from January to March, at just 57 tonnes. From April to June, central banks bought 289 tonnes, a record for a second quarter.

Even so, the first half of 2026 came to 345 tonnes, the lowest first half since 2022. The World Gold Council's outlook is another strong year of central bank buying in 2026, though below the 2025 total.

What do the forecasts say for 2027?

The World Bank's October 2026 outlook expects gold to average US$4,250 an ounce in 2027. That's 7.6% below its forecast average for 2026, US$4,600, and it has US$4,000 for 2028. All three sit above gold's US$3,913.25 price on 30 October.

Those are averages over a whole year, not the price on any one day. And they change. In April 2026, the World Bank's forecasts were higher, at US$4,700 for 2026 and US$4,300 for 2027.

Its outlook also expects precious metals to ease somewhat in 2027 while staying more than three times their 2015 to 2019 average. In other words, it sees prices cooling from a peak, not crashing back to where they were.

Our post on the World Bank's commodity price outlook covers what the same report expects for energy and food prices.

The World Bank's gold price forecasts, October 2026
Year	Forecast average, US$ an ounce	Change on the year before
2026	US$4,600	Up 33.6%
2027	US$4,250	Down 7.6%
2028	US$4,000	Down 5.9%

How long have past gold slumps lasted?

Sometimes months, sometimes decades. These are three big falls in the US dollar price, before inflation:

The 1980 fall is the one to remember. Gold dropped 70.3% and took almost 28 years to pass its old peak. Someone who bought at the top in 1980 waited until 2008 just to break even in US dollars, before inflation, with no interest along the way.

The 2008 fall was the quick one. Gold lost 28.8% in seven months, then passed US$1,000 again in September 2009.

Three big falls in the gold price, in US dollars before inflation
Peak	Low	Fall	Back above the peak
US$850, January 1980	US$252.80, July 1999	70.3%	January 2008, almost 28 years later
US$1,000, March 2008	US$712.50, October 2008	28.8%	September 2009
US$1,895, September 2011	US$1,049.40, December 2015	44.6%	July 2020, almost 9 years later

What does gold cost you in Singapore on top of the price?

It depends on what you buy. Investment-grade gold has been free of GST since 1 October 2012. Jewellery isn't, so the 9% GST still applies to that bangle.

To count as investment-grade, a gold bar, ingot or wafer has to be at least 99.5% pure and tradeable on the international bullion market. It also needs a recognised quality mark, and it can't be a decorative or collector's piece.

A gold coin has to be at least 99.5% pure, be or have been legal money where it comes from, and be on IRAS's list of coins. Bars with a loop or hole to wear as a pendant, odd-shaped bars and collector coins don't count, so GST applies to them.

Say you're choosing between S$1,000 of gold jewellery before GST and S$1,000 of investment-grade bars. The jewellery carries another S$90 of GST, and the bars carry none.

What do 999 and 916 on gold mean?

They're the purity, in parts per thousand. 999 gold is 99.9% pure, and 916 gold is 91.6% pure, with other metals making up the rest.

That changes what a gram is worth. At S$160.78 a gram for pure gold on 30 October 2026, a gram of 916 gold holds about S$147.27 of gold.

It also decides the GST. Investment-grade gold has to be at least 99.5% pure, so 916 gold never counts, whatever its shape.

What should you check before you buy any gold?

Start with what you need the money for, then look at the gold itself. Our guide on how to invest in gold in Singapore compares the ways to own it.

If gold is held for you rather than handed over, find out who holds it and how. MAS doesn't regulate schemes where investors own physical assets such as gold directly, its position since 2012.

How long could you leave this money alone? Past slumps have lasted from months to decades.
Does the bar or coin count as investment-grade, so there's no GST?
What's the dealer's buying price next to its selling price? That gap is what you lose if you sell straight back.
Who holds the gold, and what happens to it if they fail?
How much of your savings would be in gold? It pays no interest, while T-bills and savings accounts do.

The MoneyBees take: what we'd check first

We'd decide what job gold does in our money before we watched the price. It pays no interest, and after its 1980 peak it fell 70.3% and took almost 28 years to pass that peak again.

Gold drew buyers when worry ran high through 2025, but every dollar in gold is a dollar not earning interest.

What settles it is how long you could leave the money alone if the price kept falling.

Before you go

This week, write down what the money you'd put into gold is for, and the year you'd need it back.

Frequently asked questions

Will gold prices go up in 2027?

Nobody knows. The World Bank's October 2026 outlook expects gold to average US$4,250 an ounce in 2027, 7.6% below its 2026 forecast of US$4,600, but above the US$3,913.25 price on 30 October 2026. Forecasts get revised, as this one was from April.

Will the price of gold go up again after this fall?

It might, but past falls have taken anywhere from months to decades to undo. Gold took about 18 months to recover from its 2008 fall, almost 9 years after 2011 and almost 28 years after 1980.

What is the gold price in Singapore dollars?

On 30 October 2026, gold was US$3,913.25 an ounce. At S$1.2779 to the US dollar, that's about S$5,000.74 an ounce, or S$160.78 a gram. The price moves with gold and with the exchange rate.

Why has the gold price fallen in 2026?

No single cause explains it. Gold was coming off a record US$5,405 in January, gold funds saw outflows, partly because of the weaker price itself, and US rates went up again in September.

Is gold jewellery exempt from GST in Singapore?

No. Only investment-grade gold is exempt: bars, ingots, wafers and listed coins at least 99.5% pure. Jewellery, pendant bars, odd-shaped bars and collector coins still carry the 9% GST.

Are central banks still buying gold?

Yes. They bought a net 863 tonnes in 2025 and 289 tonnes from April to June 2026, a record for a second quarter. Buying in the first half of 2026 was still the lowest since 2022.

Sources

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This is general financial information for Singapore, not personal financial advice. Figures change, so verify current rates against the official sources above before acting. See our full disclaimer.

Junxiong-WFG Organisation is an authorised representative of AIA Financial Advisers Private Limited (Reg. No. 201715016G).