Sustained decline of 20%+ from recent highs. Often triggered by recession, rate hikes, or shocks. Median bear market lasts ~9 months.
A bear market is a sustained decline in asset prices, conventionally defined as a 20%+ fall from a recent market high. The term comes from how a bear swipes downward with its paw.
Bear markets typically last 9 – 18 months on average, but range widely: the 2020 COVID bear was 33 days from peak to bottom; the 2000 – 2002 dot-com bear was 31 months.
2000 – 2002: dot-com bust. S&P 500 fell 49%. NASDAQ fell 78%.
2007 – 2009: Global Financial Crisis. S&P 500 fell 57%.
Feb – Mar 2020: COVID shock. S&P 500 fell 34% in 5 weeks. Fastest bear in history.
2022: rate-shock bear. S&P 500 fell ~25%. Bonds also fell sharply.
Volatility spikes: VIX often doubles or triples versus its bull-market average.
Correlations rise: previously diversified assets fall together. The 'free lunch' of diversification dilutes when fear takes over.
Liquidity drops: bid-ask spreads widen, market depth thins. Some asset classes become hard to sell at posted prices.
Investor capitulation near the bottom: peak fund redemptions, panic selling, and 'cash is the only safe asset' narratives are reliable bottom signals.
Don't sell: equity bears recover. In US history, every bear has been followed by a new bull and a new high. The investors who panic-sold in March 2020 missed the 100%+ recovery.
Keep DCA-ing: bear markets are the rare opportunity to buy quality assets at meaningful discounts. Continuing your monthly investment is mechanically advantageous.
Rebalance INTO equities: as bonds outperform stocks during a bear, your allocation drifts conservative. Rebalancing buys cheap stocks with overweight bonds.
Emergency fund matters more than ever: it's what prevents you from being forced to sell at the bottom to cover a sudden expense. The fund's job in a bear is to never get touched.
A sustained decline in asset prices, typically 20%+ from a recent high. Average duration ~9 – 18 months, but varies widely. Named after the downward swipe of a bear's paw. Characterised by capitulation, fund redemptions, and 'cash is king' sentiment.
Don't panic-sell. Equity bears have always recovered historically. Keep DCAing — bears let you buy quality assets at meaningful discounts. Rebalance into equities as bonds outperform. Your emergency fund matters more than ever — its job is to prevent forced selling.
Severe bears can take 50%+ off market indexes. The 2008 GFC bear was -57% for the S&P 500. The 2000 – 2002 dot-com bust was -49% (and -78% for NASDAQ). The COVID 2020 bear was -34% in 33 days. Each was followed by full recovery within years.
Theoretically yes, but you'd need perfect exit and re-entry timing — and history shows nobody can do this reliably. Investors who tried to time the 2008 and 2020 bears mostly missed the subsequent recoveries. Time in market beats timing the market.