Sustained period of rising prices, typically 20%+ from a recent low. Investor sentiment is optimistic and risk appetite high.
A bull market is a sustained period of rising asset prices, typically defined as a 20%+ rise from a recent market low. The term originated in the way a bull attacks — thrusting upward with its horns.
Bull markets are characterised by high investor confidence, increasing capital flows into equities, expanding valuations, and a self-reinforcing optimistic narrative.
2009 – 2020: the longest US bull market on record. The S&P 500 rose ~400% from the GFC low. Ended with the COVID crash in March 2020.
April 2020 – Jan 2022: post-COVID bull. S&P 500 doubled in 21 months, driven by stimulus and tech.
Oct 2022 – present: current US bull market, AI-driven, focused in mega-cap tech.
Singapore STI: less dramatic but synchronously bullish — typically follows global trends with a 6-month lag.
Volatility tends to compress: drawdowns are shallow and infrequent in established bull markets.
Sectors that lead rotate: bull starts often led by quality and defensives; mid-bull by cyclicals and growth; late-bull by speculative segments (small-caps, IPOs, crypto-adjacents).
Valuations stretch: P/E ratios climb as price growth outpaces earnings growth. By peak, valuations often look unsustainable to long-term observers.
FOMO trap: investors who sat out the early bull years often capitulate near peaks, deploying capital just as the cycle is ending. Worst possible timing.
Underestimating duration: bulls last longer than most observers expect. Calling 'the top' in years 5 – 8 of an 11-year bull is a common mistake.
Discipline matters: keep contributing through bull markets, but resist increasing risk above your target allocation. Rebalance into bonds as equities outperform.
Cash drag: holding too much cash 'waiting for a correction' costs returns. The opportunity cost of timing the market consistently dwarfs the savings from buying a few percent lower.
A sustained period of rising asset prices — typically defined as a 20%+ rise from a recent low. Named after the upward thrust of a bull's horns. Characterised by high investor confidence, rising valuations, and self-reinforcing optimism.
Average ~5 years historically, with wide variance. The 2009 – 2020 bull was 11 years (longest US bull on record). Post-COVID 2020 – 2022 was 21 months. Current cycle (Oct 2022 – present) is ongoing. Bulls last longer than skeptics expect.
Hard to call the top. Most investors who try lose more to mistimed exits than to participating in the eventual bear. Stick to your target allocation; rebalance to trim winners as bonds underperform; keep contributing rather than 'sitting out' on cash.
Recession, rate shocks, valuation collapse, or sentiment exhaustion — sometimes all at once. Bear markets typically follow. Bulls don't 'die of old age' — they die from specific catalysts. Watch macro signals (inverted yield curve, rising unemployment) but don't try to time exact tops.